{"id":966,"date":"2007-05-26T16:58:55","date_gmt":"2007-05-26T20:58:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/shermandorn.com\/wordpress\/?p=966"},"modified":"2007-05-26T16:58:55","modified_gmt":"2007-05-26T20:58:55","slug":"americas-secondary-enrollment-trace-late-20th-c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shermandorn.com\/?p=966","title":{"rendered":"Americas secondary enrollment trace, late 20th c."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Thanks to a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.juiceanalytics.com\/writing\/2007\/05\/why-make-100-charts-when-one-will-do\/\">a great Excel chart tip<\/a>, I can now provide one way of summarizing synthetic-cohort educational attainment data from the following countries using census data from the second half of the 20th century:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Brazil\n<li>Chile\n<li>Colombia\n<li>Costa Rica\n<li>Ecuador\n<li>Those born in Mexico and enumerated in either Mexico or the U.S. in 1960, 1970, 1990, or 2000\n<li>United States\n<li>Venezuela<\/ul>\n<p>All of this is courtesy of the <a href=\"http:\/\/international.ipums.org\/international\/\">International Public Use Microdata Sample library<\/a>, a wonderful resource available without use charge to any researcher in the world. You can <a href=\"http:\/\/www.shermandorn.com\/mt\/archives\/Dorn_SHCY_07_secondary_trace_only.xls\">download this Excel file with the relevant chart<\/a> and use the scroll bar on the right to highlight the key data from any country, period, and sex combination. More in the full entry&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<hr width=\"25%\">\nVery roughly, each line indicates the proportion at each age that would have completed secondary education but <em>only<\/em> secondary education (no university degree), if a hypothetical cohort went through ages 15-35 with the same educational experiences implied for the intercensal period by the census microdata at each end of the period in question.<br \/>\nThere are the usual number of quirks and quibbles&#151;<em>quirkles<\/em>?&#151;embodied in this chart, from some key model issues to the algorithmic details:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The census estimates at the base of this chart start with only those born in the country, with the exception of Mexico (explained below)\n<li>I assume that there is no substantial differential mortality by educational attainment for the years in question\n<li>I assume similarly that out-migration does not substantially affect attainment (again with the exception of Mexico)\n<li>I estimate the cross-sectional proportion with a credential at an exact age as the average of the proportions in surrounding single-year age intervals, smoothed in the case of the Latin American countries at many ages as three-year averages (in the age intervals). Many of the increments are again smoothed with moving three-year averages and then fixed at 0 if slightly negative.\n<li>The model I&#8217;m using (from <a href=\"http:\/\/muse.jhu.edu\/journals\/demography\/v039\/39.2schmertmann.pdf\">Carl Schmertmann&#8217;s 2002 article<\/a> [$]) is an estimate of intercensal increments without weighting by person-years, unlike most intercensal estimate techniques.<\/ul>\n<p>Of all these issues, the migration assumptions are the ones that will raise the most eyebrows, and I hope that if you&#8217;ve read this far, you&#8217;re wondering why I combined the U.S. and Mexico census data. The basic answer to the latter question is <em>because I could<\/em>. Both Mexico and the U.S. conducted censuses in 1960, 1970, 1990, and 2000, and I was curious if the results would be affected by including U.S. residents born in Mexico. I discovered that for some ages (older teens and those in their 20s), more than 10% of those born in Mexico were residing in the U.S. for some of the censuses. That&#8217;s a fascinating statistic in itself, and the existence of the same-year censuses suggests a potential for cross-national social histories using the censuses in question. I&#8217;m still puzzling over questions of &#8220;effects,&#8221; since we don&#8217;t know who spent which years where from the census stats, just the end result for the population as a whole.<br \/>\nI used the secondary-and-only-secondary-attainment line because it shows both secondary and college attainment. The up-slope shows secondary attainment, and the downslope shows college attainment (absent some late secondary graduation).<br \/>\nBon appetit!<br \/>\nOh, yes: For those following these things, my son&#8217;s team won their first tournament game today, 14-2 (ten-run rule after four innings). By doing so, they&#8217;ve saved their #2 and #3 pitchers for tomorrow&#8217;s game. Then everything gets harried, regardless of the results, and all teams go through their experienced pitchers. Spahn and Sain, then pray for rain?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Thanks to a a great Excel chart tip, I can now provide one way of summarizing synthetic-cohort educational attainment data from the following countries using census data from the second half of the 20th century: Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Ecuador Those born in Mexico and enumerated in either Mexico or the U.S. in 1960, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-966","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-history","category-research"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pag0MB-fA","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/shermandorn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/966","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/shermandorn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/shermandorn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shermandorn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shermandorn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=966"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/shermandorn.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/966\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/shermandorn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=966"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shermandorn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=966"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shermandorn.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=966"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}