More test SAS files for state-level net flow from North Carolina in 2000-01, Massachusetts in 2000-01, and Massachusetts from the mid-1990s. As I’ve seen before I got the algorithm right, there’s a significant downtick for Mass. 2000-01 for 10th grade (or a higher-magnitude negative flow). You need several years of data after that point to know precisely how to interpret that datum. Is it a response to the implementation of either the high-stakes system with MCAS or the exit exam in Massachusetts? Hard to tell, exactly. Having seen anecdotal evidence of school-system responses to high-stakes testing, it might be evidence of a massive burp of triage/purging or of a student response. It’s the broader pattern that’s really necessary to tease things out.
One methods issue: there are two ways to think of smoothing data for small systems. One is to take annual data and smooth it. The other is to estimate two-year net-flows. Have to work on appropriate SAS statements for that.