A hearty New Year’s Eve congratulations to all the amazing celebrities who may or may not be publicizing a ginormous baby bump and asking for shared sacrifice at Occupy Youtube, even if someone in a man cave is conspiring blowback, irritated at the new normal in pop culture. This misanthrope (probably a pet parent for a python) is scheming to win the future by trickeration. For all emergency responders who foil this nefarious planned deed, I thank you in advance.
If you hadn’t guessed already, the annual Lake Superior State University List of Words Banished from the Queen’s English for Misuse, Overuse and General Uselessness has now appeared for the start of 2012.
At the end of last year I took a cold, hard look at my own predictions from 2008 but didn’t make any significant ones of my own. ((I received a rear-view mirror with my Ph.D., not a crystal ball.)) In the spirit of Rick Hess and Larry Ferlazzo, but with much less risk, I will venture the following Safe Predictions for 2012 Education News:
- There will be a well-publicized cheating scandal, with a broad variety of conclusions drawn by commentators. Those conclusions will include the ridiculous.
- Teen fertility and crime rates will go up or down or stay stable, with a broad variety of conclusions drawn by commentators. Those conclusions will include the ridiculous.
- Test scores shall be published, with a broad variety of conclusions drawn by commentators. Those conclusions will include the ridiculous.
- There will be fraud that a reporter discovers was committed by for-profit companies contracting with school districts or states. This will prompt precisely zero policy change during the year in any state, except perhaps loosening of regulations on for-profit companies taking public funds for schooling.
- Someone will use the term “defender(s) of the status quo” in ad-hominem remarks attacking an opponent in education policy debates.
- Someone (else) will use the term “corporate reformer” in ad-hominem remarks attacking an opponent in education policy debates.
- At least two or three overpaid pundits/talking heads will use some aspect of consumer or popular culture to lament the decline of Western civilization and the corruption of youth. There will be nothing in the commentary but the ridiculous. ((My prime candidates: George Will, Charles Krauthammer, Bill O’Reilly, Bill Maher, Robert Samuelson, Cal Thomas, Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Bill Bennett, Cokie Roberts, and Sam Donaldson.))
- The New York Times will publish a poorly-documented and factually-problematic trends story about education, childhood, or young adulthood. The Times will never publish any correction to factual errors in the story.
- Both major party presidential candidates will say in speeches (and debates, if asked) that education is a critical priority for the country and for them personally.
- There will be no reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act during 2012.
So what are your predictions for education news in 2012?
That paragraph at the start was brilliant!
The Daily Mail will publish nothing *but* the ridiculous.
2012? Impossible to predict, really. Perhaps some of these points are plausible, but let’s open it up a bit: 2012-2015.
1. I would watch California’s budget situation closely, and the cascade effects of cuts in higher ed. The scenario is fundamentally unstable, and the equilibrium points are all lower than where they are now.
2. Related to this are the cascade effects from the decline in federal subsidies in higher ed — no matter how minute they may be — the writing is on the wall, and it is one word: unsustainable.
3. Some national form of loan forgiveness for student debt will be attempted. It has a very low probability of success, but will be a catalyst for focusing attention on our structural problems.
4. VAM will advance — as the Fuchsian analysis of bureaucratic systems shows, they are always moving in the direction of greater and finer grained rationalization. More at my blog on this. (The other reason, of course, is much more prosaic — history shows that teacher reforms and higher qualifications are much more prevalent during teacher gluts, if only as a way of justifying hiring and sorting practices.)
My wish for the New Year is for accreditation reform, along the lines of the changes to the US Minerals Management Service in the wake of the tragic BP Oil Spill. For many reasons, this will not happen anytime soon — But the longer we wait, the more devastating these changes will be for higher ed institutions.